Shifting Dynamics of Quad: Will the Meeting in India Happen?

Transformations in Global Geopolitics

Since taking office, President Donald Trump has made a series of decisions that have significantly altered the landscape of global geopolitics. While relationships and equations can shift over time, the rapidity of these changes has taken many by surprise. Back in 2019, major steps were taken to strengthen the Quad alliance, with Trump himself leading the charge. The commitment was made for Japan, India, Australia, and the United States to work together to mitigate China's influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. However, circumstances have evolved dramatically, raising questions about the upcoming Quad meeting.

Concerns Over the Upcoming Quad Meeting

A recent report from a prominent media outlet has sparked discussions worldwide, suggesting that if current conditions persist, the Quad meeting scheduled in India this year may not take place. There are speculations that the meeting could be relocated or postponed altogether.

Historical Context of the Quad Alliance

On December 29, 2004, then-President George Bush announced the formation of an international coalition involving India, Japan, Australia, and the United States. This coalition aimed to provide relief and rehabilitation for those affected by the tsunami, focusing on restoring essential services. Once the tsunami relief mission concluded, the Quad framework emerged in 2007, primarily aimed at curbing China's expansionism.

India's Leadership Role in Quad

This year, India holds the presidency of the Quad, which meant that President Trump, along with the Prime Ministers of Japan and Australia, was expected to visit India for the summit. The leaders were to reaffirm their commitment to the Indo-Pacific region. However, the first 200 days of this year have seen a dramatic shift in perceptions regarding the Quad, which was initially established to counter China's assertive policies in the region. Today, the Quad appears to be faltering, much to China's delight.

Implications of the Changing Dynamics

The article suggests that Beijing is likely observing the situation with satisfaction, as President Trump seems to be on the verge of dismantling the fragile Quad alliance, which was intended to counter China's influence in the Indo-Pacific. The rationale behind Trump's actions, which have strained relations with key regional partners like India and Japan through tariffs, threats of sanctions, and provocative rhetoric, remains unclear. It appears to be driven more by domestic political considerations than by strategic coherence.